China Life (601628) Annual Report 2018 Review: A Series of Factors Gradually Cleared to Reinvigorate China Life to Continue

China Life (601628) Annual Report 2018 Review: A Series of Factors Gradually Cleared to Reinvigorate China Life to Continue

Investment Highlights The company’s 2018 performance was affected by the underwriting and investment sides, and the magnitude of the change in the scope of the initiative. Actively reducing the burden on the company will help the company’s goal of “rejuvenating China Life”.

The company realized a total operating income of 64.31 million yuan in 2018, a year-on-year decrease of 1.

5%, the net profit attributable to mothers was 1.14 million yuan, a decrease of 64.

7%.

The main change in the company’s performance is due to the negative growth in new single premiums and shifts in the change in investment income. In addition to passive factors such as regulatory policies and poor secondary market conditions, the company’s active behavior has interacted, including lowThe value of the bancassurance brokerage business was reduced from nearly 60 billion pounds in 2017 to 8.6 billion dollars in 2018, as well as the active sale of reorganized floating loss stocks, with an investment asset sale difference of -215 trillion.

The company took the initiative to reduce the burden of bread and go light, which is conducive to the company’s goal of “rejuvenating China Life”.

Affected by regulatory policies and the company’s initiative, the value of new premiums and new business improved, and the renewal led to a positive increase in total premiums and a slight increase in market share.

Affected by the impact of Circular 134 on annuity insurance sales and the company’s active reduction of bank and insurance transactions, the company’s new single premium and new business value in 2018 have been replaced.

The company initially realized a new single premium of 1711 million, down 23 a year.

5%, new business value of 4.95 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.

6%.

Driven by renewal premiums, the company realized total premiums of US $ 535.8 billion in 2018, an increase of 4 per year.

7%, higher than the industry average, with a market share of 20.

4%, an increase of 0 from the end of 2017.

7 units.

The premium structure was significantly optimized and the quality of business was gradually improved.

Based on the implementation of Circular 134 in 2018, the company significantly optimized the premium structure.

Among the new single premiums in 2018, the proportion of premiums paid in the first year reached 90.

2%, an increase of 26 from 2017.

2 samples; of the total premiums, renewal premiums accounted for 68%, an increase of 11 from 2017.

8 units.

The company’s business quality has also gradually improved, with 14-month and 26-month policy 南京桑拿网 continuance rates being 91.

1% and 86%, which increased by 0 respectively before 2017.

2 digits and 0.

3 units.

In terms of asset allocation, the company mainly increased the proportion of fixed income assets such as time deposits. The total investment yield was affected by poor secondary market conditions and the company’s initiative to sell a large number of floating loss stocks, which was lower than the same period last year.

In 2018, the company substantially increased the proportion of fixed income assets such as time deposits, among which time deposits accounted for 16% in 2017.

3% rose to 18% in 2018. At the same time, due to poor secondary market conditions, the proportion of equity assets such as stocks and funds declined.

In terms of investment yield, the company’s net investment yield and total investment 杭州夜网论坛 yield in 2018 were 4 respectively.

64% and 3.

28%, a decrease of 0 from 2017.

27 digits and 1.

88 shares per share. From the data point of view, the company’s 2018 investment asset bid-ask spread income was -215 trillion, and the fair value gain or loss was -54 trillion. The above two parts of revenue were reduced by 359 trillion compared with 2017.The decline led to an increase in the rate of return on investment.

We slightly adjusted the company’s EVPS in 2019, 32 in 2020 and 2021.

58 yuan, 37.

33 yuan and 42.

43 yuan, the EPS is 1.

02 yuan, 1.24 yuan and 1.

47 yuan to 2019.

3.

At the closing price of 27, the corresponding PEV is 0.

83,0.

72 and 0.

64, corresponding PE is 26 respectively.

5, 21

79 and 18.

31. We give a prudent overweight rating.

Risk warning: New single premiums are lower than expected, interest rates are down, and investment returns are down.

Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050): The expected proportion of the profit of the auto zero business that is in line with expectations has advanced rapidly

Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050): The expected proportion of the profit of the auto zero business that is in line with expectations has advanced rapidly

The core view performance was in line with expectations, and the auto zero business achieved rapid growth.

The company released the 2018 annual results report, and achieved total operating income of 108 in 2018.

33 ppm, an increase of 13 in ten years.

1%, achieving net profit attributable to mother 12.

9.2 billion, an annual increase of 4.

5%, EPS is 0.

61 yuan / share.

The company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2018 was 11.

9%, one unit lower than in 2017.

The company’s demand for new energy vehicle thermal management products is growing, and the auto parts industry is growing rapidly.

The forecast of the growth rate of air-conditioning sales is expected to affect the company’s fourth-quarter revenue growth forecast.

The company achieved operating income of 25 in the fourth quarter.

68 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.

4%, realizing net profit attributable to mother 2.

68 ppm, a ten-year increase4.

4%.

The company’s total operating revenue for the first three quarters of the year increased by 38.

4%, 24.

6% and 14.

6%, the growth rate continued to grow sequentially; the expected revenue growth rate is expected to be mainly affected by the sales of downstream air-conditioning machines.

In the fourth quarter, the net profit attributable to the mother was 10.

4%, a small margin of 0 a year.

3 units.

Benefiting from the increase in the number of new energy vehicle thermal management products, it is expected that the auto zero business will achieve higher growth.

The company is the exclusive supplier of Tesla’s Model 3 thermal management system. According to Tesla’s financial report, its sales of Model 3 in 2013 were 13.

80,000 vehicles. After the Tesla China plant is put into production in the future, the company’s supporting capacity of Tesla’s new energy vehicle thermal management products will continue to increase.

In addition to supporting Tesla, the company has also become a supplier of BMW and Daimler. It is expected that the company’s new energy vehicle thermal management product revenue and profit share will increase year by year.

Financial forecast and investment recommendations The gross profit margin of home appliance accessory products is expected to be slightly lower than expected, and EPS0 is forecast for 2018-2020.

61, 0.

72, 0.

86 yuan (originally 0.

65, 0.

80, 0.

94 yuan). Comparable 武汉夜生活网 companies are automotive thermal management parts and home appliance related companies. Comparable companies averaged 22 times the PE evaluation in 19 years, with a target price of 15.

84 yuan, maintain BUY rating.

Risks suggest that the thermal management package for new energy vehicles, the amount of household appliance cooling packages exceed expectations, and the business of micro-channel and Yaweike is lower than expected, affecting profit growth; the original growth exceeds expectations and risks of exchange rate changes.

China Communications Construction (601800): 4Q18 single-year growth rate in the new millennium returns to 2019

China Communications Construction (601800): 4Q18 single-year growth rate in the new millennium returns to 2019

The company’s recent situation On March 15, the company announced a new long-term single situation for 2018 and an internal investment project budget for 2019. We briefly comment as follows.

Comments 4Q18 municipal environmental protection orders increased rapidly every year, driving the overall order growth back to positive.

At the beginning of 2018, the company’s new chronic order was 8,908.

7 ppm, an increase of ten years.

1%, 4Q18 of the new millennium single 3,080.

700 million, an increase of 10 in ten years.

4%, the growth rate in a single quarter is significantly improved compared to the second and third quarters (2-3Q18 intervals of 7.
).

7%, 16.

9%), mainly due to a single significant 佛山桑拿网 increase in new growth in municipal and environmental protection (+107 in the fourth quarter of 2018).

7%), while highway, port, railway, overseas engineering single season orders can still be changed.

We expect to gradually pick up the overall recovery of domestic infrastructure project bidding. The company’s new forecast single growth rate in 2019 is trying to return to 5?
10%.

Investment orders are expected to remain flat in 2019, but landing is expected to accelerate.

The company’s budget for new territorial investment projects in 2019 is US $ 150 billion, which is the same as the same period in 2018 (the actual company’s purchasing power parity new contract value in 2018 was 1,523.

3 trillion, accounting for 17 of the overall new contract signed.

1%, a decline of 19 per year.

4%), mainly due to the 上海夜网论坛 company’s initiative to control the scale of investment under the “de-leveraging” requirement.

In 2019, the company’s investment projects plan to complete an investment of 900 million US dollars, an increase of 5 compared with the budget before 2018.

9%, the budgeted investment volume has steadily increased, mainly due to the reorganization of the contract reserves of previous contracts and the gradual improvement of project financing.

Overseas orders and revenue seek to accelerate.

At the beginning of 2018, the company’s foreign millennium alone was 1,590.

1 ‰, a ten-year average of 26.

0%, making its debut since 2013, mainly due to the uncertainty of the international political and economic outlook in 2018, which has hindered the development of overseas business. In 2017, the East Coast Railway project in Malaysia formed a high base.

We expect the company’s overseas orders to return to growth in 2019. The main reasons are: 1) the base number in 2018; 2) the second “Belt and Road” summit forum to promote the provision of catalysts for overseas projects.

The recognition of overseas income is also expected to accelerate.

Estimates and recommendations We expect that the company’s domestic and overseas project orders and revenue recognition in 2019 are expected to achieve marginal improvement.

The current A / H can correspond to 9.

4/5.

7x 2019e P / E and 8.

4/5.

1x 2020e P / E (based on EPS after replacing perpetual debt interest and preferred stock dividends).

Maintain “Recommended” rating for A / H shares and maintain target price.

1 yuan / 12.

0 is unchanged, corresponding to 12.

1/8.

1x 2019e P / E, 29% / 43% room for earlier price.

The new risk growth single-digit growth was worse than expected, and cash flow continued to deteriorate.

Jin Xinnong (002548) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Cycle Reversal, High Growth

Jin Xinnong (002548) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Cycle Reversal, High Growth
Event: The company released its 2018 annual report and achieved operating income of 28.01 billion, down 8 before.52%; Realized return to net profit of -2.8.7 billion, down 524 before.46%.The downturn in pig farming in 2018 weighed on overall performance.Another company’s first-quarter performance forecast announced that the net profit attributable to mothers is estimated to be 9 to 13 million yuan. The main reason for replacement is that most of the epidemic areas in the first quarter of the first quarter have not been unsealed, and the live pig transportation is still restricted.With the lifting of the epidemic areas in 21 provinces at the end of March, the national live pig transportation has improved significantly, and the overlapping pig cycle has been on the rise. It is expected that subsequent company performance will gradually improve. Comments: 1) Both the volume and price of pig breeding business have dropped.The sluggish pig prices in the first half of 2018 and the outbreak of African swine fever in the second half of the year affected the company’s breeding business.The company’s hog sales in 2018 achieved revenue3.48 ppm, a decrease of 37 per year.23%; realized net profit -1.24 trillion, a year down 233.28%.In terms of volume, the company gradually sells hogs34.860 thousand heads (17 years 37.480,000 heads), especially because breeding pigs were blocked from inter-provincial transportation, the company’s breeding pig sales increased significantly53.28% to 5.120,000 piglets, stable sales of piglets, while commercial pigs maintained an upward trend. 2) The feed business developed steadily.The company’s feed sales in 2018 were 76.92 cations (including domestic sales 10.55 years old), almost the same as 2017.However, as the prices of corn, soybeans and other raw materials rose, the gross profit margin of the feed business decreased.25 averages to 11.77%. 3) Impairment of goodwill affects profits.In 2018, the company made a total of 1 for Wuhan Tianzhong and Fujian Spring.3.2 billion of goodwill impairment provision.With the completion of the environmental protection demolition and transformation, the pig cycle conversion is renewed, etc., it is expected that the operations of the above-mentioned companies will be significantly improved, and the risk of revaluation of goodwill impairment is small. Periodic change, increase in both quantity and benefit. African swine fever promotes the deterioration of fertility of fertile sows. Based on the growth cycle calculation, its impact is reflected in the second half of 19th.We expect hog prices to start growing rapidly at the end of the second quarter.Although the company’s performance in the first quarter is still a breakthrough, it is expected to start to improve significantly in the second half of the year, and it will make a substantial profit in 2020. The number of listings increased rapidly.Combining internal 北京男士spa会所 and external development of the company to vigorously develop the production of pigs: the integration of the Tieli pig ecological breeding industry project to achieve full production in 20 years.At the same time, the shares of Xinda Animal Husbandry, Jiahe Agriculture and Animal Husbandry in the company’s shares increased steadily.We estimate that the total equity of the company converted from the shareholding ratio in 19-20 years will be 660,000 and 1.12 million.The rapid growth of the listing and the increase in pig prices have made the company’s performance flexible. Continue to be optimistic about the company and maintain a “Buy” rating. African swine fever not only promotes the industry to reduce production capacity, but also makes epidemic prevention difficult.At present, the company has adjusted its business plan and actively responded to the impact of African swine fever.This will reduce the risk of the company ‘s pig infection epidemic, but it will also increase the cost of breeding. The company ‘s profitability of pigs may be lower than our expectations.Therefore, we revise down the company’s 19-20 year profit forecast, while supplementing the 21-year forecast.We expect the company’s EPS in 19-20 to be 0.39 yuan, 1.80 yuan and 1.98 yuan.The volume of listings increased rapidly, the cycle was extended upward, and the company continued to be optimistic about the company, maintaining the “buy” level. Risk warning: less-than-expected capacity release, lower-than-expected product prices, and risk of infection.

Xingfa Group (600141) Interim Review: The price of organic silicon rose sharply and continued attention to the environmental protection of yellow phosphorus in Southwest China

Xingfa Group (600141) Interim Review: The price of organic silicon rose sharply and continued attention to the environmental protection of yellow phosphorus in Southwest China

Incident company released 2019 Interim Report: report, the company achieved operating income of 95.

07 trillion, +1 a year.

21%; net profit attributable to parent company1.

24 ppm per year -32.

58%; net profit after deduction is 0.

940 thousand yuan, at least -61.

43%; basic return is 0.

13 yuan.

A brief comment on the substantial breakthrough in the price of organic silicon, “Xingrui Silicon Materials” officially became a wholly-owned subsidiary, and the report gradually, the price of the organic silicon market fell sharply.

From January to February, the traditional off-season season for organic silicon has continued to drop prices. After the Spring Festival, due to the gradual resumption of downstream work, the market has picked up. In May and June, due to the imbalance between supply and demand in the market, the price of organic silicon fell below 1.

8 million / ton, which will stabilize by the end of June.

In the first half of the year, the company’s average DMC sales price was 1.

59 million / ton, ten years -37.

55%.

In addition, the company issued shares to acquire 50% equity of Xingrui Silicon Materials and continued to promote it. On August 13, 2018, the transaction of asset transfer in this transaction has officially completed the industrial and commercial change registration procedures, and Xingrui Silicon Materials officially became the company’s fullSubsidiaries.

At present, the company is implementing an organic silicon monomer technology upgrade project and a 10-second / year special silicone rubber and silicone oil project. After the project is completed, the company’s organic silicon monomer production capacity will increase to 36 euros / year.

The downstream of phosphate rock continued to slump, and the decline in production and sales caused 成都桑拿网 a slight fluctuation in revenue. The company currently has phosphate rock reserves with mining rights.

With a capacity of 7.3 billion tons, the design capacity of phosphate doped ore is 760 annually after obtaining the mining license of Houping phosphate ore in March this year.

In the first half of 2019, affected by the local government’s phosphate ore production restriction policy, the safety and environmental protection and high-pressure strict control were overlapped, the driving rate of the phosphate ore decreased, and the supply of the phosphate ore market further decreased compared with the same period last year.

In fact, the downstream phosphate fertilizer market continues to be sluggish, especially the export market is facing intensified international competition and insufficient orders. Most downstream customers mainly consume phosphate ore stocks, and the 北京夜网 increase in purchase expectations is not strong, which has led to a decline in the phosphate ore market price.
Reporting intermediates, the company achieved 173 phosphate ore production.

64 is the lowest, at least -4.

1%; phosphate rock sales 104.

At the beginning of 05, at least -22%; realized revenue from phosphate ore business2.

89 ‰, at least -8.

3%.

In terms of prices, the average potential price of phosphate rock sales was reported at 277.

63 yuan / ton, previously +17.

58%.

Glyphosate is supplemented by volume, and revenue is increased by + 25%. The company ‘s wholly-owned subsidiary Taisheng Company has a total production capacity of 18 tons / year of glyphosate, ranking first in China and second in the world.

According to the research report, the company achieved glyphosate phosphate production7.

91 inches, + 50% per year; glyphosate sales 6.

88 initially, at least +25.

8%.

In terms of prices, the highest average glyphosate reported price was 22,999 yuan / ton, at this time -0.

97%.

Revenue from glyphosate business was achieved through price premiums.

8.3 billion, previously + 25%. Yellow phosphorus environmental protection in the southwest region. Since the company was located in Hubei for 7 months without being disturbed, due to the environmental protection improvement of the yellow phosphorus industry in the southwest region, the supply of the yellow phosphorus market has contracted, and prices have undergone significant changes in stages.

Refusing to report, the main producing areas of yellow phosphorus in Yun, Gui, Sichuan and other places were affected to varying degrees. The company’s production in Hubei was not significantly affected.

According to the reported quantity, the company achieved yellow phosphorus production5.

11 initial (at least +14.

6%), 0 sales.

89 mm (previously -39%); achieves fine phosphate production9.

41 initial (at least +3.

5%), sales 8.

56 lowest (+5.

8%).

Period expenses are reasonably controlled for reporting expenses, and company expenses are reasonably controlled.

Among them, sales expenses of 30,000 yuan (expense rate of 3.

16%, ten years +0.

31pct), administrative expenses 1.

0.5 billion yuan (expense rate of 2.

36% every year -0.

03pct), financial expenses 3.

09 million yuan (expense rate of 3.

25% every year -0.

04pct).

Expense rate for the period 8.

76%, ten years +0.

24pct.

The biological advantages of “mine-electricity-chemical” are obvious. Pay attention to the follow-up progress of domestic environmental protection of yellow phosphorus. The company is one of the rare domestic “mine-electricity-chemical” phosphate chemical companies.Phosphate equivalents have bottomed out, and follow-up attention will be focused on the continuous progress of domestic environmental protection of yellow phosphorus.

We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to mothers in 2019, 2020 and 2021 will be 3 respectively.

49, 5.

16 and 6.

42 trillion, irrespective of the dilution of equity caused by this additional offering, corresponding PE is 22 times, 15 times and 12 times respectively, maintaining the “overweight” level.

Depth-Company-China Merchants Bank (600036): Spread rises higher than expected Excellent fundamentals support leading premium

Depth * Company * China Merchants Bank (600036): Higher interest rate spread than expected Excellent fundamentals support leading premium

China Merchants Bank’s interest margin improved significantly in the fourth quarter, driving rapid revenue growth, and the annualized ROE further improved, leading it in the industry.

We believe that China Merchants Bank’s prudent and prudent operating style, the continuous consolidation of its advantages in the retail sector, and the gradual emergence of fintech promotion have turned into stronger risk defense capabilities in the downturn than its peers, and its profitability can remain outstanding, maintaining a buy rating.

Key points of support levels The improvement in interest margins has led to an increase in the growth rate of net net income. The middle income business has continued to adjust. China Merchants Bank ‘s 2018 net profit has increased by 14%.

84%, an increase of 0 compared with the first three quarters.

2 units, the growth rate is expected to be at the forefront of the shares.

The increase in the company’s net profit growth was mainly due to the marked improvement in interest margins, which led to a growth in net interest income growth of 0 compared with the first three quarters.

86 averages to 10.

7%.

However, there is still adjustment pressure in the middle income business, and fee income growth rate (3.

(85%, year-on-year) expected to drag down revenue performance, revenue growth rate fell by 1 compared with the previous three quarters.

05 averages to 12.

52%.

2019 is the transitional period for the transition of wealth management business. The adjustment of the company’s wealth management business will continue. Affected by this, fee income is expected to maintain low growth.

The interest rate rise was higher than expected. The outstanding performance of deposits in the fourth quarter was the highlight of China Merchants Bank’s interest rate performance, with a single quarter net interest margin of 2.

66%, an increase of 12BP month-on-month, mainly due to the increase in asset-side income brought by the optimization of the loan structure.

The company’s loan balance increased in the fourth quarter, but the proportion of retail sales increased to 51%. Especially the high-yield credit card business developed rapidly, and the loan balance increased.

1%.

The company’s single-quarter loan yield increased by 10BP QoQ to 5.

twenty three%.

On the debt side, CMB’s deposits increased by 8 in the fourth quarter.

94%, a further 74BP increase over the previous three quarters.

The cost ratio of deposits in the fourth quarter remained flat at 1.

48%.

Non-performing assets continued to decline. In terms of asset quality of upstream peers, CMB’s non-performing loan ratio in the fourth quarter fell by 6BP to 1 from the previous quarter.

36%.

We estimate that the company’s single quarterly annualization in the fourth quarter generated supplementary zero.

48%, down 12BP from the previous month, basically flat for ten years.

The company’s overdue loan / non-performing loan ratio over 90 days was 78.

9%, strict identification of non-performing; provision coverage ratio increased further by a minimum of 32 to 358% from the previous month, with adequate provisioning.

Taken 深圳桑拿网 together, China Merchants Bank is at the leading level in terms of asset quality and risk resistance.

It is estimated that taking into account the downward pressure on asset-side pricing and the company’s initiative to increase the provision of reserves under stable and changing economic conditions, we adjusted China Merchants Bank’s 2019/2020 net profit growth rate to 12.

9% / 11.

0% (was 13.

3% / 12.

3%), currently corresponding to the net subsidy of the city in 2019/2020 1.
.

43/1.

27 times.
The main risks faced by the rating are: asset quality expectations exceed expectations, and financial supervision exceeds expectations.

Satellite Petrochemical (002648) Company Commentary Report: New Projects Put into Production Promote Record High Performance

Satellite Petrochemical (002648) Company Commentary Report: New Projects Put into Production Promote Record High Performance

Event: The company announced its 2019 performance forecast, and it is expected that the company will realize net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2019.

5-13.

500 million, an annual increase of 32.

89% -43.

52%, one-year performance hit a record high.

The second phase of PDH and polypropylene project put into operation promoted the growth of performance.

The company’s main products include propylene, acrylic acid and carbonates, of which acrylic acid and esters are the main sources of profit.

From the perspective of the company’s business, the prosperity of the company’s products in 2019 is slightly inclined, and the spread of acrylic acid is inclined horizontally.

31%, PDH spreads twice every ten years.

03%.

The growth of the company’s performance 南宁桑拿 is mainly due to the increase in production capacity brought about by the commissioning of new projects.

In February 2019, the company launched the second phase of the PDH 45 project and put it into operation on May 15th. Benefiting from this, the company’s PDH capacity doubled and the polypropylene capacity increased by 50%.

The release of new project capacity has promoted output growth and is the main driver of long-term performance growth.

The fourth-quarter performance hit a record high, and the expansion of new projects guarantees future performance.

With the gradual release of new project capacity, the company’s performance continued to improve.

From the single quarter results, the net profit for Q1-Q3 in 2019 was 2 respectively.

2, 3.

37 and 3.

65 trillion, showing a trend of gradual improvement.

According to the forecast of the performance forecast, the fourth quarter performance was at 3.

28-4.

28 ppm, a 10-year increase3.

15% -34.

In the fourth quarter of 1995, the quarterly performance also hit a record high.

In the future, the company’s remaining 30-inch acrylates and esters and 6 samples of SAP resin will be put into production successively. The ethylene cracking project is also expected to be completed by the end of 2020. The investment in new projects will promote the company’s future performance.

The initial split project provides long-term growth space.

The company plans to invest US $ 33 billion in Lianyungang to build projects such as expansion and splitting and PDH, with a total capacity of 400 in two phases.

At present, the project is progressing in an orderly manner. A series of agreements such as project design, patent technology license, and long-term equipment procurement have officially entered into force, and substantial work has been carried out.

The company established a joint venture with SUNOCO to operate integrated export facilities, and completed the leasing agreement for the first batch of wholesale dedicated transport vessels.

Crude oil storage tanks and terminals are also under construction.

Benefiting from the US shale gas revolution, the prospects for the introduction of split ethylene production are considerable.

With the progress of the first-phase economic and trade agreement between China and the United States, China will increase its purchase of energy and chemical products from the United States and promote the protection of the company’s supply of alternative raw materials.

At that time, the ethylene project will strive to provide long-term growth space for the company’s profit.

Profit forecast and investment advice: The company’s EPS in 2019 and 2020 are expected to be 1.

21 yuan and 1.

51 yuan, with a closing price of 14 on February 3.

Calculated at 63 yuan, the corresponding PE is 12 respectively.

1x and 9.7 times, maintain “overweight” investment rating.

Risk Warning: New Project Progress Exceeds Expectations, Product Prices Drop Sharply

China Eastern Airlines (600115) Third Quarterly Review: Q3 load factor and seat income both reduce oil prices and drive cost improvements

China Eastern Airlines (600115) Third Quarterly Review: Q3 load factor and seat income both reduce oil prices and drive cost improvements

Event: The company released the third quarter report of 2019: the company achieved operating income of 934 in the first three quarters.

One million yuan, an annual increase of 6.

3%; net profit attributable to mother 43.

67 ppm, a decrease of 2 per year.

7%; net profit deducted from non-mother 38.

9.3 billion, down 8 a year.

0%.

Q3 achieved operating income of 346.

1.6 billion, an annual increase of 3.

5%; net profit attributable to mother 24.

24 ppm, an increase of 9 per year.

8%; net profit deducted from non-mother 23.

31 ppm, an increase of 10 in ten years.

42%.

Q3 passenger load factor and seat income both fell, affected by the supply and demand pattern and high base.

The overall RPK / ASK growth rate of the company in Q3 2019 was +10.

1% / + 11.

8%, achieving a load factor of 82.

4% a year -1.

3 points.

In terms of air routes, the growth rate of domestic routes RPK / ASK was 11 respectively.

2% / 13.

5%, guest carbon dioxide 83.

6% a year -1.

7 points; RPK / ASK growth rate for international routes is 9 respectively.

5% / 9.

6%, the load factor 8 is 0.

6%, -0 per year.

1 point, the international line supply and demand pattern is better than domestic.

At the level of air tickets, 杭州夜网论坛 the company’s passenger kilometer income with fuel surcharge in the first half of the year was 0.

513 yuan, ten years -1.

35% (of which domestic / international income levels are -2.

4% / 0.

4%), we calculated that Q3 unit RPK operating income decreased by 6%, the company’s passenger load factor and fare decreased due to three main reasons: 1) pressure on business demand; 2) the first half of the faster capacity introduction;) The capacity scheduling was prudent in the same period last year, and achieved a higher load factor and freight base.

Oil prices fell by more than 10%, including cost control, and the company’s cost performance was excellent.

The ex-factory price of domestic jet fuel drops by 10 in 2019Q3.

9%, the average price of Brent crude is 62.

1 US dollar / barrel, substantially lower than 75 in the same period last year.At a price of $ 2 (previously -17%), at least, the company continued to lean management on various parts of the budget and routes. It is expected that the unit fuel consumption will remain lower, which will lead to a significant improvement in fuel costs. The operating cost of the company in Q3 only increased by 3.

4%.

The Q3 company’s selling / administrative expense ratios were 4 respectively.

3%, 2.

6%, -0 per year.

47 points / +0.

2 points, cost rate is well controlled.

Foreign exchange losses have been reduced, and the company has begun operations in Beijing and Shanghai in four markets. The competitive landscape is improving.

Q3 RMB depreciates against USD2.

88%, the company’s exchange gains and losses were -14.

7 trillion, compared with -16 in the same period last year.

700 million.

Calculate the company’s Q3 foreign exchange earnings total 48.

600 million a year + 1%.

In September, China Eastern Airlines and Juneyao Airlines successfully completed cross-shareholding strategic cooperation, and the competition pattern of Shanghai destinations will improve.

In addition, the company officially entered the Beijing Daxing Airport and Shanghai Pudong Airport S1 satellite hall operation. The original core Beijing-Shanghai route is still operated at the Capital Airport. The company opened a new hub in Beijing-Shanghai dual-city, two cities and four operations, the company ‘s routesThe pursuit of quality continues to lead.

Investment suggestion: Under the background of macroeconomic growth forecast, the performance of aviation demand has improved. Under the background of macroeconomic growth forecast, the performance of aviation demand has been transformed into a replacement, and the merger of Boeing 737MAX grounding time has brought improvements in industry supply and demand.The two hubs operate four markets in two cities. The main base area has a significant advantage and the market share of first-line routes is high. It is expected that EPS for 2019-2021 will be 0.

28 yuan, 0.

38 yuan, 0.

55 元,对应PE 为19x\14x\9x,维持“买入-A”评级。 Risk warning: Aviation demand is lower than expected, oil prices have increased sharply, and the real RMB has depreciated

Limin Shares (002734) Annual Report Comments: Continuously High Performance and Weiyuan Create Multi-Variety Agrochemical Platform

Limin Shares (002734) Annual Report Comments: Continuously High Performance and Weiyuan Create Multi-Variety Agrochemical Platform

Event: The company released its 2018 annual report: operating income in 201815.

1.9 billion (+6.

73%), net profit attributable to mother 2.

0.6 million yuan (+50.

09%), EPS0.

74 yuan, proposed to send 10 to 3.

5 yuan.

The company expects to realize a net profit attributable to mothers of 76.31-8511 million in the first quarter of 2019, an annual increase of 30% -45%.

The new production capacity was released smoothly, the industry boom was postponed, and the company’s performance grew rapidly. The company was one of the largest manufacturers of forest fungicides. In 2018, the main product of forest fungicides, the price of manganese zinc remained at 2.

0-2.

The 30,000 / ton shock, the company continued to expand the international market development, and initially launched 147 authorized registrations, mainly in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Central and South America, and the increase in product sales promoted the company’s performance growth.

Xinhe Co., Ltd., a joint-stock subsidiary, added 1 ton / year of chlorothalonil production capacity in 2018, and the market price of chlorothalonil increased from approximately 40,000 / ton at the beginning of 2018 to 5.

50,000 / ton, the volume and price of products rose, the company’s performance was in line with expectations.

The merger and acquisition of Weiyuan is progressing smoothly, and the endogenous extension is simultaneously improving the industrial layout. The company started an annual output of 500 tons of anisole-conazole in 夜来香体验网 the end of 2018. It is expected to be completed and put into operation in the second half of 2019.

The annual production of the first-generation Daisen series DF product project of the subsidiary Hebei Shuangji will be constructed in 2018, and it is expected to be completed and put into operation in the first half of 2019.

The company also plans future projects such as pyraclostrobin, new aluminum triethoxylate, and strong endogenous growth.

On March 29, 2019, the company’s shareholders meeting passed the acquisition of Weiyuan Biochemical Preplan, the company intends to use 4.

800 million transferees of Weiyuan Biochemical and other three companies 60% equity, the target company’s performance commitment for 2019-2021 is 1 respectively.

0, 1.

1.

200000000.

The acquisition of Weiyuan will add heavy-weight pesticide 重庆耍耍网 products such as avermectin and glufosinate to the company. At the same time, the company owns a nationwide marketing network and opens the entire industrial chain.

Cooperate with Weiyuan to create a multi-variety agrochemical platform and maintain the “strongly recommended” rating. The company’s main fungicides have successfully opened the South American market; aluminum triethoxylate and frost urea cyanide are underwritten by major customers, and the production and sales are booming.The chlorothalonil industry is highly prosperous and has strong profitability; industry consolidation has helped the company’s performance to grow.

Without considering Weiyuan’s consolidation, we estimate the company’s net profit attributable to its mother to be 2 in 2019-2021.

60/3.

12/3.

490,000 yuan, the current sustainable PE is 18.

4/15.

4/13.

8 times, risk reminder to maintain “strongly recommended” rating: fewer orders, lower product prices, and the company’s environmental protection ability is less than expected

Zhongzhi Shares (600038): Net profit in three quarters reported to high-growth companies in ten years growth expected

Zhongzhi Shares (600038): Net profit in three quarters reported to high-growth companies in ten years growth expected

On October 25th, the company released the third quarter report of 2019 and achieved operating income of 105.

2.9 billion, an annual increase of 28.

63%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies4.

500,000 yuan, an increase of 32 in ten years.

12%.

Brief comment on the continuous high growth of operating income and net profit.

Affected by the volume of aviation products and balanced production, the company achieved operating income of 105.

29 ppm, an increase of 28 in ten years.

63%; operating profit 4.

51 ppm, an increase of 28 in ten years.

61%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies4.

500,000 yuan, an increase of 32 in ten years.

12%.

The current contract debt is 37.

1.5 billion, a decrease of 13 from the previous period.

52%, indicating that the United Nations contract has achieved batch delivery in the report.

The company actively reduced costs and increased efficiency, with higher net profit growth.

The company’s selling expenses for the first three quarters were zero.

75 ppm, an increase of 8 per year.

78%; administrative costs remain below 5.

700 million, an annual increase of 6.

61%, both lower than the growth rate of sales revenue.

Finance costs are -0.

180,000 yuan, mainly for interest income.

The main companies in the report closely focus on the main line of supply-side structural reforms and adhere to innovation-driven. The company’s operations pay more attention to “improving quality, efficiency, and upgrading.” The company’s products pay more attention to “security, system, and innovation.””Order, service, integration”, the quality and efficiency of the company’s development continue to improve.

Helicopter manufacturing is the absolute main force, and the military aircraft market provides long-term performance support. The civilian aircraft market has gradually opened and Zhongzhi has become the only listing platform, which is the absolute main force of helicopter manufacturing.

AVIC Helicopter Co., Ltd. was formerly known as Hafei Aviation Industry Co., Ltd.

In 2013, AVIC Group injected operating assets related to the production and processing of aviation parts and components of its helicopter business segment into the civilian helicopter business into Hafei. At the end of 2014, the company changed its name to Zhongzhi.

After the injection of assets, in the helicopter sector, except for the assembly of armed helicopters, the overall listing has been basically achieved, and Zhongzhi has become the only listing platform.

The company’s core products are helicopters and related components, which have replaced each other in the non-linear helicopter industry.

After the improvement of product structure adjustment and development, the company has gradually completed the replacement of main product models, perfected the helicopter pedigree, and basically formed a good layout of “one machine with multiple types and series development”.

The huge demand for military aircraft provides long-term performance support.

According to WAF statistics, the number of military helicopters before 2017 accounted for about 4% of the world’s total, and there is still a gap with military powers such as the United States.

Frontier operations, amphibious landing operations, cross-border operations, and warship cruises all demand new military helicopters in the future. The number of helicopters needs to be changed quickly.

With the completion of the naval military reform, the Army Aviation Corps has been expanded to 11 Army Aviation Brigade and another Army Aviation Regiment. There is an urgent need for armed helicopters, new general-purpose helicopters and shipboard helicopters.

We believe that the company as a leader in the industry will directly benefit from the huge demand for military helicopters. The annual average growth rate of the company’s military revenue in the next 2-3 years is expected to maintain steady and rapid growth.

Demand for civil aircraft has grown rapidly, and product markets have gradually opened.

The number of Chinese helicopters differs greatly from the expected scale of navigation, and the advancement of low-altitude openness and the explosion of the navigation industry will further open up the company’s long-term growth space (it takes time).The Zhuhai Airshow Company signed a series of civil aircraft intent agreements that covered almost all the company’s civilian products.

With the gradual opening of domestic and foreign markets for civilian products, driven by the 深圳桑拿网 demand for civil aircraft and policy support, civilian products are expected to become a strong support for the company’s performance in the future.

The company is a leading company in domestic helicopters and will benefit directly from the rapid development of the military and civilian helicopter market in the future.

We are very optimistic about the company’s future development prospects and predict that the company’s net profit attributable to mothers from 2019 to 2021 will be 6 respectively.

310,000 yuan, 7.

5.2 billion, 8.

32 ppm, an increase of 23 per year.

55%, 19.

28%, 10.

66%, the corresponding 19 to 21 years EPS are 1.

07, 1.

28, 1.

41 yuan, corresponding to the current expected PE of 40.

05, 33.

58, 30.

24x, maintain BUY rating.